Recent Articles from Tucker Adams
The Economist: That pesky 1 percent
Back in the dark ages when I was in college (that would be the 1950s), our professors used to lament the fact that we didn’t protest and demonstrate like European students did. Clearly we were inferior when it came to having a social conscience. I’ve often wondered what they thought after the changes the 1960s […]
The Economist: Manufacturing in the U.S.
There’s lots of chatter among politicians and in the popular press about bringing tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs back to the United States. The perception seems to be that the only reason the jobs are gone is because they went to low-cost Chinese workers who toil in sweatshops with no benefits and little pay. […]
The Economist: Those Baby Boomers are getting older
For decades the baby boom generation has been a big asset to Colorado. The 26 percent of the population born between 1946 and 1964 moved here in droves back in the 1970s and 1980s, providing us with a young, highly educated, entrepreneurial work force. Today, Colorado ranks sixth highest among the 50 states in baby […]
The Economist: Random thoughts on past events
I spent the month of January ruthlessly cleaning out 35 years worth of files. Economists are notorious packrats, and I’m no exception. Among other things, I found a file of speeches going back to 1989. (I’ve been making speeches on the economy since around 1979, so I guess I cleaned files once in the past.) […]
The Economist: What does 2012 hold for Colorado?
I’m encouraged when I read the economic consensus is that growth will be really slow in 2012, much slower than the consensus expected six months ago. That’s because, in my 35 years of forecasting, I’ve found that the consensus is almost always wrong. It’s not going to be a great year. But it will be […]
The Economist: Poverty in the United States
Trying to define poverty in the U.S. is at least as complicated as defining unemployment. And the picture becomes even muddier when we try to make comparisons across countries. In the U.S. there are two official measures of poverty – the poverty thresholds and the poverty guidelines. They are prepared by different arms of the […]
The Economist: Let’s soak the rich
In our never-ending search for someone to blame for the world’s economic mess, the newest target is the wealthy. If we just tax their “ill gotten” gains, deficits will disappear, jobs will be created and household incomes will rise. If only it were that simple. No one is worth tens of millions of dollars annually […]
The Economist: Can forecasting provide anything worthwhile?
When I emerged from graduate school and went to work as the research economist for a big bank holding company, I determined to build the definitive computer model of the national and regional economies. It was going to be better than what anyone else had done and forecast with amazing accuracy. For my first few […]
The Economist: The art of forecasting
Economists have been taking it on the chin recently. After the failure of most of my colleagues to warn of the Great Recession – some arrogantly boasted that their computer models had eliminated risk and the possibility of recession – the profession’s ability to foretell the future has pretty much been written off. I’ll let […]
The Economist: The deficit/debt fiasco
As I expected, Congress dealt with the debt ceiling crisis at the ninth hour by raising the ceiling and appointing a committee (the third), leaving the basic problem unaddressed. The market for U.S. Treasury securities yawned – there is still no safer place for your money – while the stock market swooned, then bounced back. […]
The Economist: Colorado’s job growth hasn’t kept pace with population
A whole passel of topics is piling up in my folder of column ideas, none quite enough for an entire column but all of them things that are interesting and important. So, this month I thought I would comment on several of them. One thing that mystifies me is the disparity between population growth and […]
The Economist: Are we headed for trouble?
The Duchess of Doom title gets old after awhile. Except for pointing out the dangers of the housing/debt bubble back in 2006 and correctly forecasting that it would lead to a recession by the end of 2007, I’ve been pretty upbeat about the American economy over the years. But I’m starting to get worried again. […]