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Tag: covid-19

Get back to business as unusual

According to The National Institute for Occupational Safety and Health, workers who report that they are stressed incur health care costs that are 46% higher, or an average of $600 more per person, than other employees. Offering stress management programs to your employees is a worthwhile investment on many levels. When events occur in life that are void of options, like the coronavirus pandemic and resulting shutdown, stress is a natural reaction. Whether you are a small business owner or large corporation there is specific protocol in place that you must follow in order to begin to open your doors and get back to business. However, it’s not business as usual but rather business as unusual.

Usual vs. Unusual

People gravitate toward what is familiar. Do you miss your office space? Client meetings at restaurants? Casual conversations with your colleagues throughout the workday? The ability to walk down the hall and check in with team members? Face to face meetings and interactions? You’re not alone. When common occurrences are suddenly taken away, there is a grieving process. However, that comes with an incredible opportunity to practice being adaptable and creative. A person’s stress increases as their available options decrease. Several of my coaching clients have expressed a desire to go back to business as usual. Let’s take a closer look at the word usual. Usual means something that is habitually or typically done. However, usual can get boring as it is void of inspiration and creativity. Healthy habits are important for optimal wellness in life; however, when habits are completed because it’s easier to do them rather than initiate change, we miss opportunities for innovation. And innovation is essential to the creative process for expansion in business and in life. Let’s take a closer look at the definition of unusual: remarkable or interesting because it’s different. What would it take to shift your focus from business as usual (actions that are typically done) to business as unusual (remarkable and interesting)? As a small business owner of 20 years, I have decided, during this time of uncertainty, to shift my mental focus from what’s not working out to what is working out in order to maximize my available resources. Remember, you are the landlord of your thought life. You can give free rent to negative behaviors or you can make the decision to focus on expanding innovation, creating positive behaviors. The choice is yours. Perhaps it’s time to evict a mental position that is keeping you stuck. You feel stress when you give away power to outside circumstances. Instead, define for yourself what you can capable of.

Jumpstart a creative mindset

If there has ever been a time for original and creative thinking in business, now is the time. Below are several coaching questions designed to jumpstart an innovative mindset:

  • What do you want now? State your answer in the positive: “I want to expand targeted marketing efforts in a cost effective way.”
  • What will it do for you specifically?
  • How is your life going to be affected?
  • How will you know when you have it?
  • What will it feel like and sound like and look like? You are making it real.
  • Where, when and with whom do you want this?
  • How will this affect other aspects and people in your life?
  • What prevents you from having this already? This question reveals how you get in your own way.
  • What resources do you already have to obtain your desired outcome?
  • What additional resources do you need to get what you want? This may include physical, mental, emotional or spiritual resources.
  • How are you going to get it? This is the big question that leads to the plan of action and writing down the steps you will take to get to your desired outcome.
  • Is there more than one way to accomplish the desired outcome? This question opens up options, which will boost innovative thinking and decrease stress.

Your perception of the world around you flows directly from your perception of yourself. Do you see the world as safe or unsafe? Do you face challenges with flexibility and curiosity or with assumptions and reactive behavior?

Grab & Go stress relief tip for business as unusual

When you shift your perception of self, your view of reality shifts. To be adaptable during the unusual work environment it is essential to honor the BRAC: The Basic Rest Activity Cycle of the brain. Your brain is high functioning for 90 minutes and then rests for 20. If you want to maximize innovative thinking, take a 20-minute break to rest every 90 minutes in your workday. Take this time to stand up, stretch, walk around, and breathe deeply. Mentally download and lean into a past positive professional experience you had in your life. Remember, whatever you focus on grows bigger.  

5 Communication tips for hotels and restaurants when reopening

While nearly every sector of business was abruptly dropped into unchartered waters this year, the coronavirus has had a profound effect on the hospitality and tourism industries. With many reopenings beginning, and others on the horizon, here is what hotel and restaurant operators should consider to effectively communicate with guests.

Be concise and clear to manage expectations

It’s no surprise that everyone is learning to adjust to “the new normal.” To help calm consumer anxieties, it’s critical that businesses clearly communicate the ways in which things will be different when they reopen. From adding outdoor tables, reducing capacity and limiting indoor waiting areas, to managing the number of guests during check-in, be clear as to the changes guests can expect to see. Communicate these changes in advance of welcoming them, so there are no surprises. This might come in the form of website and social media messaging, outdoor signage or a pre-arrival email.

Communicate cleanliness and new standard operating procedures

Understandably, consumers are demanding more transparency surrounding cleanliness than ever before. For hotels, this could include everything from mobile check-in to increased daily housekeeping checkpoints. Restaurants may be implementing increased cleaning products and procedures, single-use condiments, menus, and more. Any new procedures that have been put into place – especially those that go above and beyond the government-mandated procedures – should be added to your website and clearly communicated via multiple channels to increase guest confidence while considering a reservation.

Be flexible

With regulations, guidelines and suggestions updated almost daily, travel plans are also consistently evolving. Businesses that demonstrate empathy and understanding in the current climate will stand out to consumers. Showing that your business is adapting by being flexible with reservation and cancellation policies (to the extent that you are capable) will help build brand loyalty in the long term.

Be authentic and available

While these past few months have changed life as we know it, it is crucial for your brand to retain its voice, and most importantly, its commitment to your core values. While messaging may lean towards being empathetic and reassuring during these times, remaining true to your brand voice – in a way that is also sensitive to the current climate – reminds customers who you are and why they care. If guests have questions, it’s important to be responsive. This can include everything from phone calls and email inquiries, to social media direct messages or public posts to address any concerns.

Present a united front

It’s important that your audience can easily find accurate information about your reopening or expanded offerings wherever they choose to interact with you. To that end, make sure that your phone message and website are accurate and updated, as well as your social media pages and other online platforms where potential guests may be searching, such as Google or Yelp. Place your announcements prominently and take advantage of any special COVID-19 tools these platforms may be offering to help spread your message.

This is a time of confusion for businesses and consumers alike. Stand apart from your competition by taking a position of control and leadership as it pertains to safely reopening, and clearly communicate it with your guests; they’ll be ready to come back before you know it.

Social distancing and loneliness: Reap the benefits of mindfulness

As we navigate this unprecedented time as a country and across the globe, finding simple and effective ways to ease our minds may make a big difference.

You might know someone who takes five minutes each morning to meditate or finds time after lunch to quiet his or her mind and focus on breathing. Whatever the method may be, incorporating mindfulness practices into your daily routine may have positive health benefits like reducing feelings of loneliness and stress; improving your memory, sleep and immune system; and increasing compassion toward others and yourself.

Simply put, mindfulness means taking time to pay attention to yourself plus your thoughts and feelings. Read on to learn how you may be able to put mindfulness into practice in your own life to help improve your health.

How to make mindfulness a routine part of your day

Find 5 to 10 minutes each day to sit quietly and focus on your breath. (Helpful hint: Put your phone on silent or in another room so you can concentrate.) Take the time to notice where your mind goes and how your body is feeling. You just might find that this helps you focus and prioritize your day.

Before you go to bed take time to focus on the good things that happened that day. Write your positive thoughts down in a journal. Writing them down can help you deliberately recognize the positive, even on a tough day.

Search for “mindfulness apps” on your smartphone or tablet that can help lead you into a mindfulness exercise. For many people, using an app is an easier way to remain consistent with the practice. And the good news is that many of these apps are free.

Feeling lonely? Mindfulness may help

It might be surprising to learn that mindfulness has been shown to help older adults overcome an urgent health issue: loneliness. It has been estimated that more than half of adults age 65 and over experience moderate to severe loneliness. But as most of the globe has been urged to practice physical distancing to help limit the spread of COVID-19, the incidence of loneliness is almost certain to rise.

Loneliness is characterized by a marked difference between someone’s desired companionship and actual relationships. Through unique studies conducted by UnitedHealthcare and AARP, researchers have applied the techniques of mindfulness to help combat loneliness in older adults.

“Social isolation and loneliness are serious yet underappreciated public health risks that may affect a significant portion of the older adult population – and we are seeing this come into greater focus around the COVID-19 pandemic,” says Charlotte Yeh, M.D., chief medical officer at AARP Services. “That is why UnitedHealthcare and AARP Services are collaborating to identify actionable solutions, geared for individuals across the spectrum of loneliness.”

Researchers looked at whether mindfulness interventions, like breath awareness, self-compassion and kindness exercises, might positively impact a person’s optimism and quality of life – factors that help reduce loneliness. And the conclusions were encouraging: mindfulness activities were shown to help decrease loneliness among older adults. The research also demonstrated that mindfulness may help to reduce stress and improve memory, sleep, immune systems, resiliency and compassion for yourself and others.

Although loneliness may be complex and challenging to address – especially in today’s unique and uncertain times – a mindfulness practice may bring comfort.

Navigating the SBA’s most recent PPP guidance

On May 13, the Small Business Administration (SBA) released additional guidance addressing the good-faith certification made by PPP borrowers that “[c]urrent economic uncertainty makes this loan request necessary to support the ongoing operations of the Applicant.”

Notably, the new guidance results in two safe harbors:

  • Loans under $2,000,000: Any borrower that, together with its affiliates, received a PPP loan of less than $2,000,000 will be deemed to have made the required certification in good faith.
  • Loans Over $2,000,000: Any borrower that, together with its affiliates, applied for a PPP loan prior to April 24, 2020 and received a loan of $2,000,000 or more, and repays that loan in full by May 18, 2020 will be deemed to have made the required certification in good faith [FAQ No. 43].

Borrowers with loans over $2,000,000 who do not repay the loan by May 18 may still have an adequate basis for making the required certification, based on their individual circumstances.  Providing some relief to these borrowers, if the SBA determines that a borrower lacked an adequate basis for this certification, the SBA will seek repayment of the loan and the loan will not be eligible for forgiveness.  Borrowers who then repay the loan will not be subject to additional penalties.

Unfortunately, this new guidance provides little comfort to borrowers outside the $2,000,000 repayment safe harbor, which will still be subject to review.   For such borrowers, the SBA will review the good-faith certification of necessity of the PPP loan, taking “into account their current business activity and their ability to access other sources of liquidity sufficient to support their ongoing operations in a manner that is not significantly detrimental to the business.”

To assist such borrowers, the following analysis separates the existing guidance around this certification of necessity of the PPP loan into its component parts:

Current business activity of the borrower

Businesses entirely shut down by governmental orders (such as restaurants, bars and gyms), likely meet this threshold as their current activity has been substantially and irretrievably damaged. Outside of these examples, businesses that can demonstrate a clear and significant downturn in their business directly related to the closure orders likely meet this component.

Borrower’s ability to access other sources of liquidity

A business with substantial available cash and untapped credit facilities probably does not meet this component. It is unclear whether businesses that could access capital from other sources that are not readily accessible, such as additional equity investments, are considered to have another source of liquidity.

Other sources of liquidity sufficient to support the borrower’s ongoing operations

In the circumstance where a business does have an untapped credit facility, is the availability under that facility sufficient to cover ongoing operations in the current climate? What is unknown is whether a business must consider full utilization of its credit facilities in determining its eligibility.

In a manner that is not significantly detrimental to the business

If accessing a source of liquidity would force the business to substantially curtail operations or place on future operations substantial managerial, cash flow, or other restrictions, then this component may come into play. An example may be a business that by tapping its credit facilities and not receiving any PPP proceeds, would be forced to close later this year, but by tapping PPP proceeds and taking other steps, is able to preserve its available capital and utilize it to later maintain operations and payroll.

 

Key to the above analysis is demonstrating that absent PPP loan proceeds, the business would be unable to maintain its ongoing operations and level of employment.

As the eligibility review will likely be conducted in at the time a borrower applies for forgiveness, each borrower should take the following steps:

  • Have a robust analysis prepared at the time of the loan application that reflects the need for the PPP loan;
  • Maintain a detailed tracking of the PPP proceeds to ensure they have been used as permitted;
  • Track actual operations to the analysis performed at the time of the loan application and to prior economic downturns;
  • If there have been employee reductions, accurately track employment numbers and dates of furlough and rehiring;
  • Detail other steps taken to maintain operations; and
  • Demonstrate other liquidity resources, if available.

The above should be documented on a current basis, at the time of application and as the borrower utilizes its PPP loan proceeds.

Read about more best practices for PPP loan documentation. 

 

Is coronavirus actually aiding decision making?

OK, the virus itself doesn’t actually improve decision-making, but many of my clients and other CEOs that I talk to say they’re making quicker and better decisions in “stay-at-home” mode. Why? Below are my observations. Incorporate them into your DNA or you’ll slide back into making mediocre decisions in the near future.

BP (before pandemic), there was too little emphasis on efficient communication when discussing and making decisions. Video and audio have limitations, but they tend to reduce bluster. I firmly believe that social interaction among team members is beneficial, but when it comes to analysis and decisions, focused thinking and discussion are better.

Takeaway: When (or if) you’re back in a face-to-face environment, allow for shoot-the-shit conversation, but delineate it from decision-making meetings.

BP, there were more meeting interruptions or even interruptions that prevented meetings from starting on time. Yes, you now have to shoo the cat or your kids out of your home office (nee bedroom) before a video call, but most start and end roughly on time.

Takeaway: With some discipline, you can actually manage your calendar when you’re in the office. I’ve helped talented, but whipsawed, executives tame their workweeks. Punctuality can become standard operating procedure. My son is often late to social events at our house, but when he was a Marine, he was never late for drill. The key is leaving enough open time to deal with the interruptions.

BP, participation (which is a function of your ability to facilitate a meeting) was often unequal. The person with the biggest paycheck or loudest voice got a lot more airtime. I’ve observed that there’s often more uniform participation in video. In other words, the more reticent team member who often has great input can participate, and the loudmouth has had his wings clipped a bit.

Takeaway: When you’re back in face-to-face meetings, make sure everyone participates and no one dominates. Here’s the East Coast version: “Thanks for your input, Jack — we understood your position 10 minutes ago. I’d like to hear from Jill!”

BP, people often came to meetings without preparation. Rushing from one meeting to another, they hadn’t read the background, which meant they either made bad decisions, or the meeting had to slow down so someone could read everyone in before the real discussion occurred. Remember how you used to hate the long presentations you sat through? Eliminate them!

Takeaway: Before you or anyone on your team schedules a meeting, consider what background information (focus on facts) the participants should have (no more than three pages), send it to them and demand that they show up informed. This will lead to much more productive meetings.

I’m talking about what goes on in your business with these suggestions. However, you also need to focus on building the trust, accountability and commitment outside of the decision-making meetings, or you’ll never reach your true potential as a leader nor have a highly functioning team.

Don’t let a pandemic go to waste. Capture the positive elements of decision-making that I delineated above and make them part of your operating system for good.

Local tattoo artist drums up new business amid COVID-19 closures

If COVID-19 has taught businesses anything this year, it’s the importance of resilience and adaptability. As the common proverb states, “necessity is the mother of invention,” and when Nate Stephens, an independent contractor and tattoo artist at Denver’s Marion Street Tattoo shop, found himself out of work due to the pandemic, he had to think quick on his feet to drum up new income.

When Gov. Polis issued the order closing all personal service businesses on March 19, Stephens and the other seven artists at Marion Street were left without their main source of income. At the time, unemployment wasn’t yet available for independent contractors and Stephen’s application for a PPP Loan was lost in the shuffle.

“It suddenly became a much more urgent situation with regard to how I would support my family,” Stephens says. “In the past, I’d seen a little bit of success with simple t-shirt designs. Nothing like the income I could generate from tattooing, but at least some cash would be generated thus giving my family’s reserves a little bit more time.”

So, Stephens began to design t-shirts, selling them through his personal Instagram and tracking sales in a spreadsheet. From the start, Stephens decided to make a shirt that targeted COVID-19 frontline workers. “I referenced an old tattoo design, known as the Rose of No Man’s land, to design a shirt paying homage to nurses on the frontlines of this viral war,” he says. Plus, he donated 20% of his total sales from the shirt to the Denver Health Foundation COVID-19 Urgent Relief Fund, aiding Denver Health workers directly affected by the pandemic.

Soon, Stephens’ t-shirt made headlines on Denver Channel 7, sending his number of orders from under 100 to over 500 orders (to-date).

As the sales rose, Stephens continued to adapt. Quickly, his Instagram-spreadsheet could not keep up with demand, so set up a simple e-commerce site (which has since been replaced with revamped site from Launch Lab) and committed to using local printers to make the shirts (Atmos Printing in Cannon City at the beginning and now Lab Seven in Denver). And, he designed a second shirt for a new charity, The Children’s Hospital Foundation.

“The design of the ‘Stay Vigilant’ shirt uses the traditional tattoo image of the kewpie doll. Its childlike features worked well for a shirt geared towards the Children’s Hospital cause,” Stephens says. “I included the words ‘Stay Vigilant’ because as we emerge from the stay at home orders, I wanted people to remember to stay vigilant in their behaviors as we continue to fight this virus.”

As the state begins to slowly open as part of the safer-at-home mandates (tattoo shops were able to reopen May 9), Stephens’ business and business mentality will be forever changed by this experience, as he plans to continue his side hustle. “I’ve learned a ton through this process and I’m doing everything I can to capture it, and continue it moving forward,” he says. “The business will now focus primarily on making shirts tied to charitable causes.”

Next up for Stephens? A shirt aimed at helping restaurant workers.

As CEO, how do I pull my team back together?

Pressure may turn carbon into diamonds, but it can also turn a well-functioning executive team into broken souls who no longer have a sense of commitment and joy. Regardless of how many Zoom cocktail hours you’ve held, that slight fluttering sound you hear might be the magic seeping out of your team. In fact, this pandemic has slightly broken most CEOs whom I talk with. Broken leaders and dysfunctional teams must be reinvigorated to achieve success.

How do you do this?

  • Re-examine personal values. Have everyone on your team share theirs and discuss how they might’ve changed. (I’ll email you a simple tool if you contact me.)
  • Identify what wins look like in this new environment. Your goal posts may have moved.
  • Reassert or redefine your strategy. Is it still valid in this new environment?
  • Identify what must change to execute the strategy. Do you still have the right assets and processes?
  • Re-establish trust and healthy dialogue on your team. Social distancing and possible layoffs and pay cuts may have eroded healthy relationships on your senior team. You’ll have to work to bring them back.
  • Develop a healthy dose of pragmatic optimism. As a leader, your tone and message must be correct to align the troops. Get a second opinion on critical communication.
  • Identify what elements of your culture are working in the current environment and those that are not. I have clients who say that some of the current practices (e.g. decision making) have gotten faster and more effective. Lock those behaviors in! Also look for those elements (behaviors that were rewarded or allowed) that are no longer desirable and eliminate them.

If you have an effective executive team, your current practices, albeit with video relationships, may be enough to hold it together. However, adding a new executive to the team will require a good deal of work to get them onboarded effectively. Trust is easier to build face-to-face. You can do it remotely, but it takes twice as much work.

If you have an executive team that was not terribly well aligned, lacked trust and did not have healthy conflict BC (Before COVID-19), it will get worse without intervention.

This isn’t touchy-feely work. We’re talking about reinvigorating your company, people and legacy.

People will remember you for years based on your response to this situation. Start by getting your mind straight on the path forward and then get your team aligned.

What will economic recovery from COVID-19 look like?

A recession is upon us due to the public health crisis causing a global societal shock. The COVID-19 virus has created many unknowns, but as we work through the crisis, there are some things we do know or have a high degree of confidence in, such as spiking initial unemployment claims as well as monetary and fiscal stimulus measures. In addition, we believe much of the upcoming economic data will be shockingly bad.

The narrative now changes to what the economic recovery may look like, and there are two primary drivers of what comes next. The first is epidemiological, meaning the progression of the global pandemic. The second driver is sociological: the response of consumers, businesses and governments.

Economic recovery scenarios: Alphabet soup

The U.S. has experienced 10 recessions since 1950. Each historical recession/recovery cycle had unique components, such as inflation or oil shocks, yet each cycle had common characteristics such as monetary and fiscal stimulus. Historical recessions/recoveries cycles have taken several patterns:

  • V-shaped: Characteristics of this recovery include sharp declines in GDP with spiking unemployment. In the current environment, a V-shaped recovery would see immediate recovery in the third quarter, the COVID-19 virus solved, and the economy recovering lost output by end of 2020.
  • U-shaped: This type of recovery features sharp declines in GDP with spiking unemployment. In today’s scenario, this recovery would see stabilization in second half of 2020, the COVID-19 virus controlled, and material recovery in late 2020 and early 2021.
  • W-shaped: Sharp declines in GDP with spiking unemployment are calling cards for this type of recovery. A W-shaped recovery from our current situation would see the COVID-19 virus appearing to be controlled, the economy re-opening, COVID-19 cases re-emerging, and the economy once again shutting down.
  • L-shaped: This recovery involves sharp declines in GDP with spiking unemployment, the persistence of the virus, continued shelter-in-place orders, inadequate stimulus, and economic stagnation.

Economic recovery: Forecast

We are suggesting that the recovery will look like something between a “U” and an “L.”

We don’t think the recovery will be “U” shaped due to our assumption that a COVID-19 vaccine or treatment won’t be available until late 2020 or early 2021. In addition, the economic recovery will be modest due to high unemployment.

We also don’t think the recovery will be “L” shaped either. Our assumption is the economy will open in a few weeks, the virus will become more controlled, and adequate stimulus measures will be put into place.

Perhaps an upward sloping “L” shape, or swoosh, is the best descriptor of what we expect. U.S. GDP experienced a waterfall event as the country shut down and consumption ground to a halt. We anticipate that economic activity will slowly return to a sense of normalcy as the curve of new COVID-19 cases flattens and stimulus provides an economic backstop. We would expect modest growth continuing into 2021.

The contraction in U.S. second quarter real GDP will be unprecedented. The U.S. soft- closed on or about March 16 and vast amounts of stimulus soon followed. Since then, the available data is fluid and changing rapidly, making it difficult to interpret. That said, we expect GDP to contract by 26% in the second quarter. The Bloomberg consensus, which UMB is part of, forecasts a second quarter contraction of 25%. To demonstrate the complexity of forecasting in this environment, the range of second quarter GDP among the 70 Bloomberg participants is 0.4 to -65%, indicating that there are still a lot of unknowns.

The labor market has rapidly changed over the past two months. In approximately 30 days, 22 million Americans lost their jobs and filed for unemployment benefits. From July 2009 to February 2020, the U.S. created 22 million new jobs. The unemployment rate was 3.5% in February, the lowest since 1969. By the end of April, we expect unemployment to be approximately 25%, a record high. One positive note, more than half of the unemployed reported being temporarily laid off, suggesting that many could return to work quickly if conditions improve.

Game changers

One school of thought is that things took an abrupt turn for the worse, so perhaps things could take an abrupt turn for the best, creating a “V” shaped recovery. For this to happen, we think there are a few virus-related things that need to develop. As the following develop, our economic forecast will change as well:

  • Vaccine,
  • Treatment,
  • Widespread testing, and
  • Hospital capacity.

Risks: the “W”

A significant risk is the “W” recovery. In this scenario, spending collapses during the period of strict social distancing and rises when the economy reopens, but not to the pre-crisis level because of the shock to confidence, unemployment and other factors. There may be a brief overshooting to make up for some of the underspending during the lockdown, but if the confidence shock is long-lasting, the economy may start to slow again.

Another concern relates to the ability to open the economy and contain the virus. The risk is that this experiment fails, perhaps due to noncompliance and inadequate testing or tracking of hot spots, and another broad shutdown may be required. China, Italy, South Korea and Japan are all worth watching for clues.

A collapse in corporate earnings will place considerable strain on the capacity to service debt. There will be an unprecedented surge in corporate rating downgrades. China’s experience suggests that job losses and consumer caution will prevent demand from fully bouncing back to alleviate pressures on corporate debtors. When global GDP contracted by 0.5% in 2009, pre-tax earnings of global non-financial corporations plummeted by 45%. We’re expecting a 4.5% decline in global GDP this year, so there’s a good chance that earnings will fare worse than they did in 2009.

Some sectors will remain very vulnerable. Hospitality, leisure and some retail may never be the same. The service industry will take an obvious hit. But due to our inter-connected global economy, manufacturing is also in jeopardy. The 5.4% month-over-month plunge in industrial production in March, the sharpest monthly fall since 1946, highlights that while current coronavirus containment measures are primarily slamming the brakes on service sector activity, the manufacturing sector is also set for a significant downturn.

Conclusion

All the economic data suggests that a recession is upon us and the National Bureau of Economic Research, the official recession declarers, will likely tell us it started in March. We do anticipate that the recession will be short-lived, and the recovery will be slow and steady, taking the shape of an upward sloping “L”. Due to pent-up demand and abundant stimulus, U.S. GDP may see an impressive rebound in a single quarter. However, on a sustainable basis, we forecast that the recovery will be slow and steady into 2021. Let’s not forget that pre-crisis, potential GDP was approximately 2%, driven by the labor force growth rate and productivity gains. That hasn’t changed.