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Recent Articles from KC Mathews
2022 economic forecast: The great balancing act
This year, as rates rise, we may see another year of flat to negative returns. If we have another year of negative returns, it would be the first back-to-back years of negative returns in 50 years.
2021 economic forecast
In 2021, we expect to see robust economic growth and consumer spending, lower volatility in the financial markets along with lower-than-average returns and no new Federal Reserve activity.
The Potential Household Fiscal Cliff
What happens when the stimulus stops? Clearly, there is a potential for households to see a significant drop in incomes, an increase in delinquencies and reduced job security–all of which leads to a potential household fiscal cliff.
If you open it, will they come?
The contagious COVID-19 virus caused a global rolling economic shutdown as the virus spread. Now, after an approximate two-month shelter-in-place order, states are reopening their economies. What does this mean for consumer spending?
What will economic recovery from COVID-19 look like?
The U.S. has experienced 10 recessions since 1950. Each historical recession/recovery cycle had unique components, such as inflation or oil shocks, yet each cycle had common characteristics such as monetary and fiscal stimulus. Historical recessions/recoveries cycles have taken several patterns, so the question is: what will this recovery look like?
The Power of the Pause: The Age of the Mini Recession
The pauses experienced in the most recent economic expansion have curtailed these potential threats, allowing the U.S. economy to grow modestly and perhaps extend the current expansion cycle for several years.
The Impact of the Economic Showdown
Every good Western movie has an old-fashioned showdown. Following a conflict, everyone is out in the street drawing their six-shooters, and it ends with dramatic results.
A Case of the Two-Footed Driver
If the Fed continues to hike rates with no supporting economic data, there will be downward pressure on stocks.
Will the Labor Market Create a Soft Landing?
Historically, we're much more prone to boom and bust cycles, but there is a growing chance that a convergence of factors may help us achieve the elusive soft landing for our economy.
Is the U.S. Entering a Trade Spat or a Trade War?
The Commerce Secretary has said, "This is not a big deal." And Trump has said, "Trade Wars are good and easy to win."
Who’s Afraid of The Big Bad Wolves?
We believe the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are solidly grounded on a brick foundation, and, at least in 2018, we do not need to be afraid of the big, bad wolves.
How to stay cool as markets heat up
This season, temperatures may be hot, but the fundamentals of the economy are cool as a cucumber.
