Recent Articles from KC Mathews
Will the Labor Market Create a Soft Landing?
Historically, we're much more prone to boom and bust cycles, but there is a growing chance that a convergence of factors may help us achieve the elusive soft landing for our economy.
Is the U.S. Entering a Trade Spat or a Trade War?
The Commerce Secretary has said, "This is not a big deal." And Trump has said, "Trade Wars are good and easy to win."
Who’s Afraid of The Big Bad Wolves?
We believe the U.S. economy’s fundamentals are solidly grounded on a brick foundation, and, at least in 2018, we do not need to be afraid of the big, bad wolves.
How to stay cool as markets heat up
This season, temperatures may be hot, but the fundamentals of the economy are cool as a cucumber.
The yin and yang of investing
We, on the other hand, believe they are complementary and not mutually exclusive. Based on our research, neither an all-passive, nor all-active portfolio, is an optimized portfolio. Rather, optimal appears somewhere in the middle, hence our comparison to yin and yang.
Reality TV vs. reality — America tunes in
Trump’s term has really just begun. And what many reality television enthusiasts, and the president himself, may be finding out is that reality TV can be fun to watch, but the reality of the political process may not be.
Promises, promises… 100-day check-up on Trump's presidency
In short, has President Trump been effective?
Trumponomics vs. Reaganomics: No repeating and no rhyming
President Donald Trump has outlined his pro-growth initiatives to stimulate the economy and has clearly taken a page out of former President Ronald Reagan’s playbook.
Jobs picture: A Picasso or a Rembrandt?
In general, while many may feel the employment picture is much like a Rembrandt in that it’s easy to understand or digest in a quick view, we would actually say it’s much more like a Picasso. As with his works of art, there is much more to consider and deeper analysis needed to fully capture the o...
Focus on fiscal fundamentals
Sooner or later the market looks at the underlying fundamentals to determine asset prices. Since 2009, the fundamentals of the U.S. economy have been improving. Some of the important, positive aspects of the economy often neglected by the media include corporate health, residential investment and...
More on the policy basin
(Editor’s note: This is the second of two parts. Read Part 1.) I analyzed 45 historical episodes of deleveraging since the Great Depression in both developed and developing economies. Having specifically focused on the 32 episodes that followed financial crises, I found that deleveraging has been painful and long-lasting, generally lasting six to seven years, […]
Economic hope springs eternal
The other day, a friend of mine asked me when the stock market might test its high water mark, which was set in October 2007. The question is understandable given the robust performance of the domestic equity markets in the first quarter of 2012—and given, the market is currently only 13 percent away from that […]