Retail sales rebound in October ahead of holidays

WASHINGTON — Retail sales rose in October, posting both monthly and annual gains as consumers began spending ahead of the holiday season, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor powered by Affinity Solutions and released Monday by the National Retail Federation.

“Retail sales grew in October as consumers geared up for the holiday season,” NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said. “Recent economic data has been mixed, yet consumer spending remains solid, supported by wage growth outpacing inflation, historically low unemployment and wealth effects from strong stock market valuations. These factors point to continued momentum heading into the holidays as consumers focus on family, friends and finding value to make their budgets go further.”

Total retail sales, excluding automobile dealers and gasoline stations, increased 0.6% seasonally adjusted from September and 5% year over year, according to the Retail Monitor. That compares with a 0.66% monthly decrease and a 5.42% annual gain in September.

Core retail sales, which exclude restaurants, auto dealers and gas stations, also rose 0.6% month over month and 4.89% year over year. In September, core sales declined 0.49% from the previous month and rose 5.72% from a year earlier.

For the first 10 months of 2025, total sales were up 5.11% year over year, while core sales grew 5.28%.

The NRF projects holiday sales this year will increase between 3.7% and 4.2% compared with 2024, surpassing $1 trillion. Unlike survey-based estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, the Retail Monitor draws on anonymized credit and debit card data compiled by Affinity Solutions and does not require later revisions.

October sales rose in all but two of the nine retail categories year over year, led by digital products, clothing and sporting goods. Monthly gains were also recorded in most sectors.

Category highlights:

• Digital products, including e-books and games, rose 2.02% month over month and 22.39% year over year.
• Clothing and accessories stores gained 1.42% month over month and 7.89% year over year.
• Sporting goods, hobby, music and book stores were up 0.09% month over month and 7.19% year over year.
• General merchandise stores climbed 0.58% month over month and 6.99% year over year.
• Electronics and appliance stores rose 0.13% month over month and 6.58% year over year.
• Grocery and beverage stores increased 0.59% month over month and 4.08% year over year.
• Health and personal care stores grew 0.58% month over month and 1.9% year over year.
• Furniture and home furnishings stores dipped 0.08% month over month and 1.7% year over year.
• Building and garden supply stores declined 0.81% month over month and 8.52% year over year.

Shay said the latest data show steady consumer resilience despite inflation pressures and economic uncertainty, positioning retailers for a strong holiday season.