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Chicago Fed sees December US unemployment rate at 4.6%
Ann Saphir
Reuters //December 30, 2025//
(Reuters) – The U.S. unemployment rate was 4.6% in December, according to the Chicago Federal Reserve on Tuesday, unchanged from the official rate reported for November that economists say was likely distorted by technical issues related to the government shutdown.
In Brief:
- Chicago Fed estimates December US unemployment rate at 4.6%
- Rate unchanged from November amid steady hiring and layoffs
- BLS to release official December jobs data on January 9
- Fed signals possible pause in rate cuts as it awaits more data
The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the official December unemployment rate on January 9. Economists expect the rate to drop back slightly to 4.5%.
The Fed cut its policy rate earlier this month in response to what the majority felt was a weakening labor market and signaled it would likely pause further rate cuts in the new year as it awaited more data on the economy. It was a contested decision that drew three dissents. The minutes of the meeting are due out later today.
The Chicago Fed derives its jobless rate estimate from public and private data and issues it twice a month to give policymakers a more timely view on a key measure of the economy. The latest figure reflected little change in the pace at which workers are being hired or fired, leaving this month’s jobless rate estimate exactly at the Labor Department’s published value for last month.
(Reporting by Ann Saphir; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama )
