Thanksgiving Eve travel sees highest crash risk

A new analysis of crash data from four states suggests the Wednesday before Thanksgiving remains the most dangerous travel day of the holiday period, with collision rates rising well above typical weekday levels as millions of people take to the road.

The report, released by Feagans Law Group and data firm 1Point21 Interactive, examined nearly 3.8 million crashes from 2022 through 2024. Researchers used collision records from California, Texas, Iowa and Massachusetts as regional indicators for the West, South, Midwest and Northeast.

According to AAA, nearly 80 million people are expected to travel 50 miles or more during the 2025 Thanksgiving period. The report’s findings support long-standing concerns about heavy traffic on the day before the holiday.

Thanksgiving Eve Shows Highest Crash Risk

The analysis found that crash rates rise across the days leading up to Thanksgiving, with Wednesday showing the highest spike. Crashes increase steadily throughout the morning and surge around 11 a.m., remaining elevated until about 8 p.m.

Researchers say this pattern differs significantly from a typical weekday, which usually features sharp morning and evening commuting peaks. Instead, Wednesday sees all-day congestion as travelers depart at varying times.

Crash numbers drop sharply on Thanksgiving Day, when most travelers have already reached their destinations and many businesses are closed. The report found Thanksgiving Day averages 32% fewer crashes than a typical Thursday.

Black Friday and the Weekend After Thanksgiving Are Safer

Contrary to some assumptions, the post-holiday weekend appears safer than the days before Thanksgiving. Black Friday saw a 26% decrease in crashes compared with an average Friday, with Saturday and Sunday also reporting reductions.

Regional Differences in Crash Risk

While Wednesday was the riskiest travel day in all four regions, the magnitude of the increase varied significantly. The Northeast saw the largest spike, with crashes rising nearly 50% in Massachusetts. The Midwest followed at 15%, the South at 12% and the West at 8%.

Researchers say the Northeast increase may be linked to population density or differences in transportation infrastructure. The Massachusetts dataset alone contained more than 60,000 Wednesday crashes, suggesting the spike was not driven by a small sample size.

Travel Safety Tips

Based on the findings, researchers say Thanksgiving Day is the safest time for long-distance travel, followed by Tuesday. For travelers who must leave on Wednesday, early morning is the safest window, particularly between 6 and 9 a.m. A secondary lower-risk period occurs between 3 and 6 p.m.

Safety experts recommend drivers stay alert, avoid distractions, wear seat belts and take breaks as needed.

Methodology

Researchers compiled collision data from 2022 through 2024 using records from California, Texas, Iowa and Massachusetts. They isolated crashes that occurred during defined Thanksgiving travel periods and compared them with typical crash patterns on the same weekdays.

Brian Beltz is the Director of Research and Content Strategy at 1Point21 Interactive, where he transforms complex data into compelling visual narratives. Working alongside Feagans Law Group P.C., Brian’s team analyzed a nationwide three-year dataset of more than 3.7 million crashes to uncover how collision risks shift during the Thanksgiving travel period, comparing holiday-week patterns to typical weekday trends.