US consumer confidence falls again in December survey

Confidence among U.S. consumers weakened for a fifth straight month in December as views of current business conditions turned negative and concerns about jobs and income deepened, according to a report released by The Conference Board.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell 3.8 points to 89.1 in December from a revised 92.9 in November. November’s figure was revised higher after survey responses collected following the end of the 43-day federal government shutdown were more positive than those gathered during the impasse.

The Present Situation Index, which measures consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, dropped sharply, falling 9.5 points to 116.8. The Expectations Index, which reflects consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and employment, held steady at 70.7. The expectations gauge has remained below 80 for 11 consecutive months, a level that historically signals a recession ahead. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was Dec. 16.

“Despite an upward revision in November related to the end of the shutdown, consumer confidence fell again in December and remained well below this year’s January peak,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “Four of five components of the overall index fell, while one was at a level signaling notable weakness.”

Consumers’ views of current business conditions were negative on net for the first time since September 2024, a month marked by labor market fears and deadly hurricanes. Perceptions of job availability also deteriorated, with fewer respondents saying jobs were plentiful and more saying they were hard to get.

Two of the three components of the Expectations Index declined. While expectations for business conditions six months ahead partially rebounded from a sharp drop in November, they remained negative. Consumers grew more pessimistic about labor market conditions, and income expectations became less favorable.

On a six-month moving average basis, confidence declined across all age groups in December, though consumers under 35 remained more confident than older respondents. Confidence declined across generations, except for the Silent Generation. Millennials and Gen Z remained the most optimistic. By income, confidence fell in nearly all brackets except among those earning less than $15,000 and more than $125,000 annually. Confidence also declined among Democrats, Republicans and Independents.

Peterson said consumers’ written comments continued to focus on prices and inflation, tariffs and trade and politics. Mentions of immigration, war and personal finance topics such as interest rates, taxes, banks and insurance increased in December. While responses remained pessimistic overall, they were less negative than in November, possibly reflecting fewer complaints about inflation and politics and more positive views on interest rates following the Federal Reserve‘s third rate cut of the year on Dec. 10.

Despite the cut, more consumers, on net, expected interest rates to rise rather than fall. Inflation expectations for the next 12 months declined in December after rising in November. Expectations for stock prices were the most positive since January.

Consumers’ assessments of their current family financial situation fell into negative territory for the first time in nearly four years. However, expectations for future finances improved to their highest level since January. Fewer consumers said a recession was “very likely,” while the share saying it was “somewhat likely” increased.

Consumers also grew more cautious about major purchases. Plans to buy autos and homes slipped, and intentions to purchase appliances, computers and gaming consoles declined. By contrast, plans to buy smartphones, tablets and digital cameras continued to rise.

Spending plans in 2025 increasingly favored lower-cost experiences and essential services over big-ticket discretionary items. Anticipated spending on restaurants, streaming services, personal care and utilities rose in December, while vacation plans continued to fall.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted online for The Conference Board by Toluna.